A breakdown of the peace process will be a serious problem for Sri Lanka. What is at stake is the future of the whole country. A breach of the current Peace cannot be compared with the breakdown of earlier Peace Talks e.g.1994-1995 . The degree and sophistication of the militarisation on both sides is such that if war breaks out again the bloodshed and destruction will be much more serious.
If fighting breaks out again, the chance of another negotiated settlement is unlikely. It could be a “Fight to the finish”, whatever “finish” might be. It need not necessarily be the physical destruction of the country but the destruction (the finish) of the economy, which will set the country back 50 years (or more).
Before discussing the problem of Peace, some commonly, but inaccurately, used terms must be clarified.
The Tamils are often described as a “Tamil minority” mainly to portray the on-going ethnic problem as “a minority problem”. The Tamils are not a “minority” but a ”people” who are numerically less (18%) than the Sinhalese (74%).
The ongoing conflict has been described as “the Tamil problem”. It is not a Tamil problem but a Sinhalese problem. The “problem” has been the inability of the Sinhalese to accept that Sri Lanka is a multi-ethnic, multi-lingual, multi-cultural country where different ethnic, religious and cultural groups have a right to exist in equality, dignity and safety . That is a Sinhalese problem.
The necessary solution is often said to be “a devolution of power” to the Tamil areas. “Devolution” implies a flow down from a higher level to a lower level. The Tamil people are not asking for power to be “devolved” but to be shared so that they can run the area in which they live (the North and the East).
Unless these fundamental points are recognised and accepted, there will never be a solution to the ethnic problem, the current Peace Process notwithstanding. If these points are not accepted, the current “Peace” will turn out to be a “Pause-in-Conflict”.
In addition to problems in the Tamil North and East, there are significant problems in the Sinhala South. Increasing poverty and an escalating cost of living have made life for the Sinhala masses intolerable. Prime Minister Wickremasinghe has failed to deliver on his promises to address the galloping corruption, escalating poverty and poor governance which characterised the previous Kumaratunga regime. As a result, there is widespread disenchantment with the Government which has now been in power for 17 months.
This dissatisfaction has been exploited by political opportunists, especially the Marxist JVP, who are being supported by half of Kumaratunga’s party, the SLFP, amongst others. This deadly cocktail has been made even deadlier by support from thousands of Buddhist monks, the bastion of Sinhala chauvinism, who are capitalizing on the virulently anti-Tamil stance of the JVP. This has created a highly unstable situation in the Sinhala South, which can make or break governments. As a result, the Wickremasinghe Government is looking increasingly shaky. A return of the disastrous Kumaratunga regime, in coalition with the JVP, is not a possibility, but a probability. Such a change will, quite definitely, end the peace process with a return to war. It will also be the end of the current carnival in Colombo where the ‘elite’ are having the time of their lives.
The widespread peace euphoria has mesmerized expatriate Tamils, and others, who are unable to see the volcano about to erupt in the South and a sabotage of the Peace and a return to war in the North. Should this occur, violence will engulf the whole country. This is not a doomsday scenario but precisely what happened in 1988-89 when the murderous JVP ran amok in the South and the Indian Army did the same in the North and East. This time round there will be no Indian Army in the North and East but a much-enhanced and well-entrenched Sri Lankan Army, with the Indians in the background playing a proxy role.
Instead of wallowing in the euphoria of Peace, it is time that people woke up to reality rather than be taken by surprise. I have not the slightest doubt that the LTTE is very much awake to these possibilities which is why they are measuring their steps carefully and not rushing in to negotiate with a Government that may be unable to deliver. Indeed, it might not even be there to deliver.
Brian Senewiratne Brisbane, Australia
